Willis and Cornell University launch partnership focused on correlated catastrophe research

LONDON, May 06, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Willis, a WTW business (NASDAQ: WTW), today announced a new scientific partnership with researchers at Cornell University and the Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future to identify evolving threats from correlated natural catastrophes. The research, funded by WTW through an initial one-year funding agreement, will offer insurers and reinsurers new insights into the synchrony of major perils and its potential effects on the industry’s collective exposure to catastrophic losses.  

Catastrophic natural hazards cause large losses for insurers and reinsurers, so the industry pays close attention to aggregate behavior of tropical cyclones, wildfires, severe convective storms, and other leading perils. The insurance sector relies on geographic diversification to reduce its collective exposure to natural catastrophes, assuming that major catastrophes are not likely to occur in the same year in different parts of the world. Historically, peril-to-peril correlations have been weak, and statistical models do not generally justify holding additional capital to guard against the possibility of multiple, synchronized catastrophic events. 

But what has happened in the past may not remain the same in the future. The Earth’s climate is changing, and we do not yet know how this affects correlations across perils. Through this collaboration, experts at Cornell and Willis will examine whether major perils have already become more correlated in the present day and model the expected evolution of correlated catastrophes over the next one to five years. At Cornell, the research will be supported by the Atkinson Center for Sustainability and carried out by Dr. Jonathan Lin, Dr. Toby Ault, and Dr. Flavio Lehner in the university's Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department. 

Scott St. George, Head of Weather and Climate Research for the Willis Research Network, said: “In a changing world, we can’t afford to look only in the rearview mirror. Geographic diversification has served the insurance industry well in the past, but if catastrophes become more correlated, that strategy will no longer be valid. Our partners at Cornell will help us determine the true risk of correlated catastrophes in the present day and get prepared for the possibility of greater synchrony in the near future.” 

Cameron Rye, Director of Natural Catastrophe Analytics for Willis Re, said: “Understanding how multiple natural perils may align in a warming world is becoming increasingly important for reinsurers, who have traditionally modelled the risk from different perils independently. By combining Cornell’s cutting-edge research with Willis’s deep industry experience, we can give our clients clearer visibility into evolving catastrophe risks and support more resilient decision-making.” 

Prof. Toby Ault, Associate Professor in the Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University added: "We're excited to work with WTW to translate cutting-edge climate and atmospheric science into actionable insights for the insurance industry. Our research has shown that to accurately assess correlated risks in a changing climate, one needs to account for the chaotic nature of weather through large ensemble simulations and physics-informed statistical analysis. By combining our expertise in drought research, climate variability, and hurricane risk with WTW's industry knowledge, we can better prepare for the complex climate risks of the future."

About WTW 
At WTW (NASDAQ: WTW), we provide data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk and capital. Leveraging the global view and local expertise of our colleagues serving 140 countries and markets, we help organizations sharpen their strategy, enhance organizational resilience, motivate their workforce and maximize performance. 

Working shoulder to shoulder with our clients, we uncover opportunities for sustainable success—and provide perspective that moves you. 

About Cornell University 
Cornell University is an Ivy League and statutory land-grant research university located in Ithaca, New York. Founded in 1865, Cornell is consistently ranked among the world's leading academic institutions, with strengths in atmospheric sciences, engineering, and environmental research. The university's Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences is internationally recognized for its leadership in climate science, drought research, and applied climatology. 

About the Atkinson Center  
The Atkinson Center for Sustainability supports interdisciplinary research on climate risk and resilience, helping translate Cornell’s academic expertise into practical insights with real-world impact. 

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